Bird in Hand, or Corn on the Kolb?

As the beginning of the football offseason nears, one of the big question in all of the NFL is whether or not Donovan McNabb will be kept or traded by the Eagles. Among Eagle fans, McNabb has proven a divisive figure. Supporters will point to his win-loss record and 6 Pro Bowls. Detractors will point to his lack of a Super Bowl ring and the many games he's missed due to injury. Both sides make good points. However, there is one key difference between McNabb and Kolb. McNabb for all his faults is a known product. Kolb is still unknown.

McNabb's weaknesses and strengths are well documented. He can avoid the pass rush and throw deep balls better than anyone. And his ability to avoid throwing picks is something that only a coach could truly appreciate. At the same time, he holds on to the ball too long and can be extremely erratic in his short passes. A good coach and GM could theoretically build a title team to fit McNabb's strengths. And while Reid and company have given him speedy receivers to throw deep too, they've generally failed to create an offense well suited for McNabb's skill set.

Kevin Kolb on paper looks like a good fit for Reid's offense. He gets rid of the ball quick and is generally accurate with his short passes. But he also lacks McNabb's pocket elusiveness and has an arm that is questionable at best. He is the ANTI McNabb in almost every sense. What will ultimately determine Kolb's future is whether or not he can avoid throwing interceptions. For his young career, Kevin Kolb has averaged 1 pick for every 18.6 pass attempts. McNabb has averaged 1 pick for every 47.5 attempts. Kolb's thrown interceptions at a 250% higher rate.

Many fans will casually dismiss Kolb's penchant for throwing interceptions as just a minor inconvenience. In fantasy football this may be the case, but not in real life. Anyone who knows football knows that the team that wins the turnover battle almost always wins the game. That is why coaches will yank even the best running backs as soon as they see a pattern of fumbling the ball. Reid's job is to put this team in the best position he can to win games. If Kolb's penchant for throwing picks is something that occurs even in practice, Reid would be wise to trade him while he's still young. Simply assuming that he'll 'grow' out of this habit is not something the Eagles can gamble on. This team still has the ability to make a run at a title, even with McNabb hitting receivers at their feet. Reid for his part needs to rely more on the run and less on the short pass. Perhaps Westbrook's departure will mark a new era in Eagles football, one which includes a consistent running game.

Even if Reid doesn't change his ways, this team can still win a title with McNabb. They came within 3 points against a very good (and possibly cheating) New England Patriot team, and put up a very respectable performance against the Cardinals in the NFC title game in 2008. In fact, it was the defense that cost them a chance at a 3rd Super Bowl appearance, not McNabb.

As someone who has lived in the DC area for much of his life I can only tell fellow Eagle fans this: having uncertainty at the quarterback position is the quickest path the football hell. The Redskins haven't had a quality quarterback in over ten years. There is simply no guarantee that Kolb will even lead the Eagles to a winning record, much less a Super Bowl. And the odds of the next guy succeeding might be even less. Teams can go through a half dozen quarterbacks before finding one that can even lead them to the playoffs. We as Eagle fans can't be so dismissive about the Bird we have in hand. He's not perfect, but he is a winner.