Fiz Fantasy Projections

I am going to take a break from Phillies this week. This week is all about fantasy baseball. A few days ago I made a list of the top 160 players in fantasy baseball, but I do not think I’m really ready to release that document quite yet. I want to sit on it for another week to make tweaks and adjustments, so this week is basically a preview of next week’s article. I am just going to go around each position and tell you a few guys who I think will be good and why. You will get the stat predictions next week

Catcher

Miguel Montero – I know, I know. Everybody likes this kid and I’m just pointing out a player that every “expert” has already pointed out. But he is still worth mentioning. He is what scouts like to call a “pure hitter”. He is about to undergo his very first full season in 10’

Russell Martin – I am not a fan of him at all…but what I am a fan of is how late he is being drafted. He is a pure value for the round pick.

First Base

Miggy Cabrera - He is a fantasy stud. He is a rare breed that can hit over .310, 30+hr, 100runs, 100rbi. The only fantasy stat he does not contribute to is stolen bases, but then again how many first basemen do contribute to that category? Miggy is late 1st round talent which can be had late 2nd maybe even early 3rd in a few leagues.

Kendry Morales – He’s basically a discount version of Miggy. Morales too can hit .300 and 30 hr, but what he most likely won’t get you are the runs and rbi. He is still a decent threat for 85+ runs and rbi though. Morales is currently going in round 5. With such a stacked first base class, sitting on this position might not be such a bad idea while stocking up on weaker positions like second base and shortstop where the only valuable players will be gone by round 5.

Second Base

Howie Kendrick – He might be the only player in this weeks assessment that you will not hear about in next weeks. How bad of a year did Howie actually have in 09? So bad that he was actually demoted. But even with that he still hit a manageable .291. The boy can hit, and he has an amazing track record of hitting over .300, and he is a threat to do it again now that he has his job back

Jose Lopez – This kid is basically a knock off version of Utley. He has 20+ hr, 10 stolen bases, .280, 80 run, 80 rbi potential. Not bad for a 10th round draft choice. These stats will be better than three or four of the guys being drafted before him. Jose is the ultimate sleeper.

Short Stop

Elvis Andrus – This kid is so good that they moved an above average fielder and an upper echelon hitting shortstop to third base for him. Some may call his 09 season a failure but I will call it a building year. Draft Elvis for his 45+ sb and 85 run potential if for nothing else.

Jose Reyes – If you draft him and he is healthy, then congratulations on winning your league(most likely) you have successfully just drafted a 1st round talent in the third round. But if he is not fully recovered and is showing signs, no matter how slight, trade him and don’t look back. My money is on the fact he’s not fully healed but he has been out since mid season last year, so it is not like he hasn’t had the time to heal it.

Third Base

Ryan Zimmerman – He was drafted 3-4 rounds after Evan “Don’t Call Me Eva” Longoria last season, yet put up almost identical numbers. Interesting isn’t it?

Adrian Beltre – Beltre has the type of swing that will take full advantage of the Green Monster. Do not draft him and expect him to return to 40 hr form, but I wouldn’t call it crazy to project 30 home runs out of him.

Outfield

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury projects to be top of his class in three of the five fantasy categories. So what’s the difference between him and the other guys who are typical 3 tool players? Well the three he is contributing to are pretty much the exact opposite of the three the others are padding their stats in. Ellsbury is not out of the question to reach 70 stolen bases and 110 runs…all while hitting .300.

Ichiro – Do you do what I do most seasons? I stack up on power. Why? Because every time a player hits a homerun he contributes a run, an rbi, and a hr. Just like that you have just improved three of your categories in one swing of the bat. So what’s the problem with doing that? Your average is going to suffer. If you have a tendency to draft power the same way I do, then draft a guy who can hit way over .300, and there’s only a few of these guys, so you might as well draft the one who will contribute 40 steals while he’s at it. Ichiro is the ultimate fantasy stabilizer. Be prepared to draft him rather early though, like round 3.

Michael Bourne – I am talking about Bourne for the same reason I did Ichiro. Bourne is a stabilizer. Not as good of a stabilizer as Ichiro, and he doesn’t even stabilize your average, he only stabilizes your stolen bases. So why talk about him? Because he will steal 65-75 bases. All you need to do is draft him, and another minor base stealer like Werth and you will compete in the stolen base category every week without making a sacrifice to other stats.

Starting Pitcher
Justin Verlander – There are not many pitchers who can be a threat for 250 strike outs, and the ones that are also post ridiculously low era’s so they get grabbed very early. Verlander on the other hand will get you your 250 strike outs, but his era will be around a 3.50, so he won’t get grabbed in the early rounds. Just think of it, you are grabbing a guy who will get 250 strike outs in the 4th round.

Jair Jurrijens – So now you have your k machine and are looking for a player who will greatly reduce your era, someone that will make your pitching team elite in all pitching categories. Well just like Ichiro was the stabilizer for hitting Jair is the stabilizer for pitching. He will only contribute 2 of the 5 pitching categories, BUT the 2 he contributes, he practically perfects. If you find yourself drafting a player like Vazquez who will give you k’s but nothing else, grab Jair as well to balance things out