Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Sizing Up Baseball's Triumvirate.

While nothing is life is ever a given, it's pretty clear to anyone who pays attention to baseball that three teams rise above all going into the 2010 season. The Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox are all equipped to make a run for the title. All three bring great hitting, pitching and defense to the table, as well as considerable postseason experience. This week's article will focus on how the Phillies pitching matches up against the Yankees hitting.

Phillie pitchers vs. Yankee hitters

Few Philly fans will admit that the Yankees outclassed the Phillies in the 09' World Series. They'll point to the amazing series that Matsui had, or the boneheaded mistakes made by Feliz and Lidge in the game 4 of the series. But the simple fact of the matter is that the better team won. Not since the 93' Jays have I seen a lineup as scary from top to bottom as that of the 09' Yankees. For now, it looks like Phillie pitchers will get at least some breaks, if and when they traverse through the Yankee lineup in 2010.

Key for the Phillies in this match up are the apparent departures of Matsui and Damon. In their place, for now, is the seemingly harmless Brett Gardner and the respectable but hardly scary Nick Johnson. As for Granderson, he's a modest but not substantial upgrade over Cabrera. It was the Yankee offense that ultimately proved to be too much for the Phillies to handle. Even as the Phillies were able to neutralize Teixeira, Cano and Swisher, others such as Matsui and Damon were able to step in and pick up the slack. The 2010 Yankee lineup will still be very dangerous, but not as deep. And many of the veteran Yankee hitters such as ARod, Jeter and Posada will be another year older. This is not inconsequential when talking about players in their mid to late 30s. In fact, it may be the Phillie lineup that proves to be the one without any weaknesses, especially if one of the Phillie bench guys emerges as a dangerous hitter.

The Yankee bench as of now looks like a collection of unproven youngsters. In games played at the Bank, Nick Johnson should end up being the first bat at off the bench. This lack of proven talent off the bench could be exploited by the Phillies in home games against the 2010 Yankees. But I for one seriously doubt that the Yankees wouldn't address this potential weakness before the 2010 postseason began. In games played at Yankee stadium, the Yankee bench will for the most part be a non factor. One thing to note however is the potential departure of Molina, who basically served as Burnett's personal catcher in 09'. Burnett has had control problem throughout his career, especially with his curve-ball. Losing Molina could take away the confidence that Burnett had throwing his breaking pitches during the 09' World Series.

Looking at Phillie pitching, it's fair to say that the quality of the starting pitching should be about the same. While Doc may be a better overall pitcher than Lee, it is hard to imagine him besting Lee's performance in the 2009 postseason. Cole will look to rebound from a very forgettable 09' season that saw him lose control of his curve and subsequently his composure. If 09' taught Cole anything, it's that he needs to add a 4th pitch to his arsenal for when his curve-ball gets away from him. Reports have Cole working on such a pitch (cutter or slider), but until we see him throwing it on a major league mound it's all speculation. Needless to say things can't get any worse for Cole than they were in 09', when all he had was his fastball and changeup.

As for the rest of the starters, Blanton is what he is. Against the 09' Yankee lineup, Joe was simply overmatched. Against the 2010 version, he may be up to the task. Blanton gave up 4 runs in 6 innings against the Yankees in the 09' World Series. While those numbers may look respectable, anyone who watched could see that Joe was walking a tightrope through that deep Yankee lineup. Having a couple of average hitters mixed in the Yankee lineup should give Blanton the breaks he needs to get through 5-7 innings in one piece. Happ is the real dark-horse here. As a rookie he surprised even his biggest fans by posting a sub 3 ERA in 166 innings of work. Key to his success was the deception in the delivery of his otherwise average fastball. Happ was never given the chance to show his stuff in the 09' postseason. But as it stands now, Happ will start for the Phillies in the postseason. Against the left heavy Yankee lineup, Happ might actually do well. And if he can get his cutter working early, he should be able to hold his own against Yankee right-handed hitters as well. All of this assumes that the Phillies will not add another starting pitcher to their 2010 rotation, an assumption that few Philly fans would bet their houses on.

The Phillie bullpen had an 09' season to forget. Lidge was awful, and Romero a complete non factor. Even Madson failed to repeat the dominance he showed in the second half and postseason of 08'. That being said, it wasn't the Phillie bullpen that did the Phillies in against the Yankees in 09'. Truth is that the bullpen was never given a small lead protect. And the game 4 debacle can be blamed more on the defense (which Lidge was a part of) than the actual pitching. But if the bullpen does repeat its 09' performance that could squash any chance the Phillies have in a matchup against the Yankees in 2010. We can only assume that Lidge will be better (how could he be worse?), especially with the surgeries he's had. Romero needs to come back, as the Phillies still don't have a proven alternative left-handed set up man. Madson needs to rediscover the dominance he had in 09'. Baez gives the Phillies a solid veteran reliever whose ability to keep the ball in the park should prove quite valuable against the Yankees in either park. A couple of youngsters (Bastardo, Mathieson) give the Phillies potential bullpen dark-horses in 2010. Mathieson in particular looks like he could be a future closer. If Lidge flops, the Phillies might consider giving Mathieson the job over Madson, who has not proven up to the task when it comes to closing. Bastardo might have to fill the role of left handed specialist, especially if Romero does not return to form and Eyre proves too old and injured to be effective. Lack of good left handed pitching in the pen could prove to be an Achilles heel for the Phillies in a rematch with the Yankees. Ruben Amaro will have to keep close tabs on this situation during the 2010 season.

Overall the Phillies are probably gonna be slightly better pitching wise in 2010. The Yankee hitting will probably be slightly worse (but still very good). It wouldn't hurt to add another front-line starter to the mix, maybe one like.... Cliff Lee.

Written by Krukster

2 comments:

  1. phils will hopefully come out on top

    ReplyDelete
  2. great article, obviously well thought out

    ReplyDelete