Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Sizing Up Baseball's Triumvirate part 2.

While nothing in life is ever a given, it's pretty clear to anyone who pays attention to baseball that three teams rise above all going into the 2010 season. The Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox are all equipped to make a run for the title. All three bring great hitting, pitching and defense to the table, as well as considerable postseason experience. This week's article will focus on how the Phillies hitting matches up against the Yankees pitching.

Phillie hitters vs. Yankee pitchers

In the 2009 World Series Phillie hitters were held in check by Yankee pitching. By shortening their staff and taking full advantage of their deep pen, the Yanks were able to hide their lack of rotation depth. The bad news for the Phils this season is that the Yankee rotation now has Javier Vasquez. This, along with the continued development of Hughes and Chamberlain makes Yankee pitching even more dangerous in 2010.

The Yankee rotation will be headed by CC Sabathia, who needs no introduction or explanation. He's big, throws hard, and is as durable as any pitcher in the majors. His ability to pitch on 3 days rest was arguably the biggest reason why the Yankees were able to win the 2009 World Series. Behind him there is AJ Burnett, who gave the Phillies fits in game 2 of the series. Burnett has always been known for having a great arm but control issues. Key here for the Phillies in 2010 is the apparent departure of Molina. Molina provided Burnett with a good safety blanket, especially on his breaking pitches which can be as hard to catch as they are to hit. Hitting off Burnett sans Molina might be considerable easier for the left heavy Phillie lineup in 2010.

The rest of the Yankee rotation is unclear. With Vasquez on board and Petitte resigned, it would seem that those two would fill out the bottom of their 2010 postseason rotation. Petitte, while older still has the ability to come up big in crucial postseason games. Vasquez on the other hand has not fared well in his limited postseason appearances. It's quite possible that one of Chamberlain or even Hughes could emerge as a front line starter in 2010. Regardless of how it turns out, the Yankees will probably not be going into the 2010 postseason with a 3 man rotation.

The unsung heroes for the 2009 Yankee title team were their relievers, especially those in the middle relief. Everyone knows about Rivera, but it was guys like Marte, Robertson, Aceves and Chamberlain that really stepped up big against a potential world beating Phillie lineup. It looks like the Yankee pen will be as strong in 2010 as it was in 2009, although Rivera will be a year older, and Chamberlain may end up starting during the postseason.

But all is not lost for Phillie fans. The biggest hole in the Phillie lineup, Pedro Feliz, is long gone. And in his place is a hitter who has the ability to move runners and drive home runs. Polanco's best days may be behind him, but he is a better hitter than Feliz in just about every facet but power. It will be interesting to see how Charlie juggles the lineup now with Polanco aboard.

Leading off for certain will be Jimmy Rollins, who had a season to forget. It's hard to see him doing worse than he did in 2009. Chase and Ryan are MVP caliber hitters who have established themselves among baseball's elite. Jason Werth is an X-factor. As the Phillies only star caliber right-handed bat, Werth had a great deal of pressure on him to succeed. Needless to say, Werth passed his test with flying colors. This season, Werth may be playing for the chance to cash in big on the open market. All signs point to Werth having a monster season. Ibanez is a bit of a riddle. His first two months were absolutely torrid. In fact, people were talking about Ibanez being an MVP candidate. Then the hernia injury happened. It's hard to say how much that injury effected Ibanez. Throughout his career Ibanez has had a sub .900 OPS. Even adjusting for the more hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park, it's hard to argue that Ibanez should have hit better than what he did in 2009. Either way, the Phillies have a quality hitter who hits surprisingly well in against left-handed pitching.

Then there is Ruiz. Words and even stats cannot explain how much better a hitter Ruiz is during the postseason. The transformation is something that leaves most Phillie fans baffled but grateful. I can't speak for all Phillie fans, but I myself feel better when Ruiz comes up than I do when Howard comes up during the postseason (no knock on Ryan).

In addition to upgrading third base, it appears that Ruben has upgraded the bench as well. There is no nice way of saying this, the Phillie bench STUNK in 2009. Of course, against he Yankees, especially at Yankee Stadium, the lack of a bench was not that big a deal. What's most important for the Phils in terms of a potential World Series rematch with the Yankees is ability to insert a 9th quality hitter into the lineup. Last year with Fransisco not hitting well in the postseason, there was really no good option. This year it's possible that the Phillies may several to choose from. Fransisco should be better with the postseason experience of 2009. Ross Gload is an upgrade over the legendary but aging Matt Stairs. Dobbs too should be poised for a comeback year. Ideally, the Phillies would have had Taylor in this spot for the 2010 postseason. There is an outside chance of Dominic Brown being ready by season's end, but given the Phillies history of keeping guys on the farm as long as they can, it would be surprising if they did call up Brown for postseason play.

Overall, Phillie hitting should be better in 2010, but so should Yankee pitching. As noted in last week's article, Phillie pitching should also be better. The only decline as of now is on the Yankee hitting side. All in all, it should be a close series if these two teams do have a World Series rematch in 2010. Right now, I'd say the Yanks would win in 7, but things are far from set at this point in time.

Written by Krukster

2 comments:

  1. ruiz will be our unsung hero

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  2. another classic article. great work krukky

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